Federer lands in Cincy SFs; Nadal upended

Tennis Betting Lines

08/20/2010 - Mason, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Federer was a straight-set quarterfinal winner, while top seed Rafael Nadal was an upset victim Friday at the $3 million Western & Southern Financial Group Masters, a U.S. Open Series event.

The third-seeded Federer got past sixth-seeded Russian Nikolay Davydenko, 6-4, 7-5 on the hardcourts at the Lindner Family Tennis Center. The Swiss native improved to 7-2 in quarterfinal matches this season and 14-2 against Davydenko.

The 16-time major titlist and former world No. 1 Federer has won three of the last five titles in Cincy (2005, 2007, 2009), including a victory over Serb Novak Djokovic in last year's finale.

Federer's semifinal opponent will be unseeded Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis, who beat the reigning Wimbledon and French Open champion Nadal, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in a match that took over two hours and 30 minutes to complete.

Baghdatis picked up his first win against Nadal in seven career meetings. The Spaniard has yet to reach the final at this Cincy Masters event.

Former world No. 1 Andy Roddick and a hot Mardy Fish will meet in an all- American semifinal on Saturday.

The ninth-seeded Roddick handled Djokovic, this week's second seed, 6-4, 7-5 on Day 6 here. The big-serving American popped eight aces and cruised in 1 hour, 23 minutes.

Djokovic broke Roddick when the American was serving for the match at 5-4 in the second set, but Roddick broke right back and then held to close out the bout.

The former Aussie Open champion Djokovic appeared in the last two Cincy finals, losing to Federer here last year and British star Andy Murray in '08.

The former U.S. Open champion Roddick, who titled in Cincinnati in 2003 and 2006 and was the runner-up here in 2005, will next face his good friend Fish for a place in the final. Fish won their most-recent head-to-head battle in Atlanta last month.

The wild card Fish, meanwhile, went the distance to outlast the fourth-seeded Murray, 6-7 (7-9), 6-1, 7-6 (7-5).

Fish overcame the Australian Open runner-up Murray in just under three hours with the help of 13 aces, and the hard-serving American held his serve throughout the hard-fought affair.

The 28-year-old Fish converted on his first match point when Murray netted one final return. Fish is now 3-0 against Murray this season.

Murray required some medical attention on his leg during the lopsided second set for Fish.

The 2003 Cincinnati runner-up Fish has won 15 of his last 16 matches overall, which includes titles in Newport and Atlanta.

Murray, who upset Federer in last week's blockbuster finale at the Canadian Masters event in Toronto and was this year's Aussie Open runner-up to the Swiss icon, was the Cincinnati champ in 2008.

The 2010 Cincinnati titlist will claim $443,500.

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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